Oh, Goodie! Fight! Fight!

I actually feel really uncomfortable writing about American politics most of the time. I'm an outsider, my knowledge is peripheral, and I know it.

But I have to say, I'm absolutely thrilled to see this story in the Times tonight.

I have been surprised at the restraint of the Obama campaign. I suspected they had some gritty hard-fighting mentality behind 'em, but that it just wasn't the right time.

I got to thinking about it and I figured it'd be wisest to save the hard-hitting punches until the convention kicked around, or even just after Labour Day. There's enough ammunition to take McCain apart.

Really, I don't think this election's going to be as close as everyone thinks. I think Obama can take it by 8 or 10 points, depending how shrewd he plays this.

I said a while back that I think, if you keep giving McCain rope, he's going to hang himself. He's not Bush's carbon-copy like everyone alleges, but he's close enough, and that's a liability.

Obama's biggest detriment right now is that he has NOT been fighting back. When it's the "Leader of the Free World", polite and articulate isn't what it's all about. It's also about kicking ass, taking names, and protecting the American brand. When Obama's being all polite and accommodating, that's not going to be something Americans think he can do.

But you go back and you look at certain moments in Obama's career, like his anti-war speech in late 2002, some of his more candid moments, his political skullduggery getting elected in Illinois. This isn't a Boy Scout, and it's a mistake to think he is one.

Which is the mistake made by the McCain camp.

I was thinking about making an allusion to Obama reminding me in some ways of a boxer who allows his opponent to have at 'em in the early rounds of a fight, to wear him out, like Muhammad Ali often did. Let them show you their strengths -- and weaknesses -- and all the while you figure out just how to beat that strategy.

McCain has been desperate. His ridiculous turn-about on offshore drilling is a good example. Sending his lapdogs to Georgia on a "fact-finding" mission is another example. He wants to call Obama a flip-flopper and presumptuous, yet adopts both those tacts himself? And he doesn't think this is going to contribute to insanely good fuel for Obama?

This week is when everything gets interesting. Summer presidential campaigns? A yawn and a snooze. Labour Day weekend? Giddy fun!

Obama's going to come out fighting. He's got the piss and vinegar, now he needs to show it. Gloves will be off.

And McCain's best month of fundraising, July, was still half of Obama's $51-million haul that same month. The Times observes that the attitude will be "Sure, let's spend it, let McCain try to keep up."

Yeah. Good luck with that. Like I say, fun times to come.

Obama: That Smarty-pants

Ahaha! The most astute article on Barack Obama I have seen yet.

I knew all this long ago. I'm no naif.

For months I've been saying this guy's gonna rewrite politicking as we know it, certainly campaigning as we know it. He's no oaf. He's as shrewd as the day is long.

I disagree a little on the campaign reform issue, though.

There are times when you have to realize "Hey, wait, I think I've gone about this all wrong", and I suspect this is one of those times for Obama. He's bungled it a bit, but I applaud what's happening as being the most revolutionary "public funding" of a campaign in history.

No pundit, NO PUNDIT, predicted the possibility of the American public anteing up to the tune of $88-on-average per contributor, with the end result being a staggering $275 million... for primaries? I mean, holy fucking staggering shattering of all previous records, Batman!

$55 million in a single month? Like, who knew that many Americans really cared? Who knew people would find that much spare change around during a recession? Who knew?

That said, Republicans keep finding their ways around the funds provided by the public funding system. 527s and Swiftboating Veterans aside, in a way, public funding levels the playing field, and that's pretty important. But when you throw in the Swiftboats and the Willie Hortons and the other "concerned citizens" out there, it seems like there's some pretty big pits and bumps on that playing field after all.

But if you have a cap on the amount a single person can contribute, and you eliminate all corporate contributions, and you more tightly regulate "concerned citizen" groups, then you've essentially leveled the playing field before the game even got started.

I mean, if you're a political party -- more importantly, one of TWO political parties-- and you can't get your constituents to support you financially as a way of applauding your policies and leanings, then you've got bigger problems than just running elections.

Of course what Obama's doing seems brilliant here and now, since they're leading in all polls and contributions, and should that tide turn and the contributions fail to come in, voices of discontent will ring out on this side again.

But shit happens and that's how we roll. Right now, Americans are speaking by putting their money where their mouths are, and with $275 million raised for Obama's campaign versus $101 million for McCain's, it's pretty clear what they're saying. Even the dreaded 527 groups on the right are having trouble raising funds this year.

This is an important year. If it means Obama sails into the election with a bigger pot to pick from and all he needs to do is throw his argument out -- while probably trying to come up with a new way to resolve that same issue -- and have crazy money to spend while the Republicans are crying their eyes out and struggling to catch up... well, yeah, I can see why he'd play that way. After all, the environment's in dire straights, the economy's on the curb, corruption seems rife in this administration, a possibly unjust war continues well into its fifth year now, and there has never been a bigger contrast in America's choice.

As a result, this "controversy" doesn't change my point of view on Obama one bit. I don't think being politically shrewd is a sin. I don't think playing his cards tight and judiciously has been a bad move. I don't think this means he can't still lobby for campaign reform. In fact, I think he's proven "public funding" works better than anyone could have dreamed.

I still think he's the right political mind in the right place at the right time, and I believe his shrewdness and political brilliance could be no better placed than in the White House.

But I love what Brooks said, "All I know for sure is that this guy is no liberal goo-goo. Republicans keep calling him naïve. But naïve is the last word I’d use to describe Barack Obama. He’s the most effectively political creature we’ve seen in decades. Even Bill Clinton wasn’t smart enough to succeed in politics by pretending to renounce politics."

No shit, Brooks. You said it, bro. It's one of the things I love to watch Obama for, actually. The brilliant little bits of strategizing that are going to have political science experts redefining how politics are played.

Methinks that, in Obama, there's finally someone who can outRove Rove. Oh, and not in a "Why the hell hasn't someone indicted that guy yet?" kind of way... just in a finger-on-the-pulse and way-to-spin-it savvy seldom seen in public minds.

That's what's going to kill the Republicans this year, too. They don't respect their opponent enough. He's just an uppity junior senator from Illinois -- what the fuck is he playing the big boy's game for, right? They just don't get it. They still think you need 20 years of back-room elbow-nudging deals to know how to play the game in Washington.

But this election's not about Washington anymore, never really was. It's about how the web was won.

(And, despite my fully-aware perceptions on Obama, I still think, deep down inside, that he's a guy who'll make the right decisions most of the time, and for the right reasons. After all, that's really all you can hope for in a leader. And anyone who can play politics as well as Obama but still claims to hate 'em might just be the perfect person to recreate 'em, right? Time will tell.)

Dissecting the Campaigns before the Real Test Starts

I'm slacking in all my crampy glory. It's a lousy day to be female.

I'm ignoring the mess that surrounds me, trying to think of when I feel like making the tacos I shouldn't be making, or whether the spaghetti and meat sauce sounds wiser. Oh, difficult thoughts.

So I'm diverting my attention with the Times. Great passage here on the upcoming new tactics unveiled by the Obama campaign:

Mr. Obama’s aides said some states where they intend to campaign — like Georgia, Missouri, Montana and North Carolina — might ultimately be too red to turn blue. But the result of making an effort there could force Mr. McCain to spend money or send him to campaign in what should be safe ground, rather than using those resources in states like Ohio.

See, this is where I think Obama's different from all the recent Democratic campaigns. He's a fuckin' scrappy little dude and he's going to fight on different terms than the bend-over-and-take-it Democrats of old. He's taking new ideas in a new era and using new medias to create an image with the youth that no one's been able to do since the Kennedys, but he's also fighting a simpler, more grassroots battle of old like more traditional campaigns of underdogs have done, but he has a record-breaking budget for advertising that dwarfs the Republican warchest.

It's a fucking awesome convergence of situations that's going to make for a campaign that will reinvent political science classes, man. I totally see all the rules getting rewritten here.

This is where the campaign will get entertaining. Fight 'em where they think they're safe, beat 'em where you know you can take 'em, and take what you can where you're not expected to take much in an election year where a fraction of a percent could make all the difference, after two national elections decided by exactly that.

In that election year where one percent will make a world of difference, these are the tactics that need employing. The whole thing will keep the comfortable politics-of-old dinosaurs-r-us Republican machine on its toes, and I think may ultimately cost the Republicans the election. I do not think they're imaginative nor honest enough to survive a modern new media election with someone savvy enough to use it all to their advantage, whether it's the Black-eyed Peas doing "Yes we can" on YouTube or Obama cleaning up in a throw-down basketball match on the trail, McCain's still going to look 80 and beaten everywhere he goes.

I'm believing this could be a double-digit victory for the Democrats if they play tough Chicago politics the whole way through and Obama can maintain the smooth, calm exterior he's been exuding of late. He lost his cool around the last Clinton-Obama debate, and he's been measured and pretty unflappable ever since. She caught him, and he seems to have learned from it.

This is one campaign where he needs to maintain the "never let'em seeya sweat" mentality of cool and comfortable, because there's no way in hell a 25-years-senior McCain can match the pacing of the fit, healthy, young Obama. No way. It's far worse a juxtaposition of the doughy, sweaty Al Gore versus the fit, athletic rugged cowboy of Bush from 2000.

If the Republicans become reactionary and defensive while looking old and sounding dated, and the economy continues to fail, this one may just be in the bag after all.

Maybe I'm oversimpifying it, because I'm sure it will be a difficult and challenging path ahead of them, but I have a feeling that McCain's going to feel out of his league, because we've seen in the past that Obama really gets under his skin, and it pisses him off that this upstart seems to have it so easy, and this causes McCain to lose his cool.

I think he'll totally blow his cool at some point on this campaign, and he's going to come off with that simmering, seething anger you see bubbling under his skin sometimes, and those icky yellow teeth in forced "fuck you but I'll play nice" forced smile. I think he'll continue to be satirized in the press, and he won't have a sense of humour about it. He will slowly develop a strange and somewhat bastardized persona in the press. He's halfway there, with the leering desperation that oozes behind his failed quips like, "America has known me for years, unlike how they're just getting to know Senator Obama" with the breathy, creepy toothy grin he flashes at the end.

Slowly we'll see Obama emerge as the easy, afflable, fit and charming young guy he appears to be, and McCain will increasingly show his frustrated interior, and the stats will play out in Obama's favour. Obama needs to embrace more of the everyman image, sipping ice tea after basketball, cycling with his kids, holding up walking sticks from 95-year-old men and promising to "whup" congress if they fail to pass his health bill. That's the Obama that'll have this in the bag, so it's all on that shining through.

The McCain camp, of course, plans to focus their strategies on states lost to Obama in the primary season, which is going to serve like a roadmap for them. But this could be the fatal flaw in their tactics, because, while Obama may have lost to Clinton, and big, in some states, it doesn't mean the disenchanted will be casting a vote the Republican way. They're still Republicans. And Bush is barely alive with 30% approval these days, and no matter how much McCain wants to pretend he's a bold new era, that pesky record of voting just like Bush is going to bite him in the ass sooner or later, and if Wall Street has any more 3% loss days and oil continues skyrocketing over $140 a barrel, there's no fucking way Business-as-Usual will continue to be swallowed by the less savvy political minds out there.

So, ultimately, Obama has the campaign advantage, 'cos they have a clear showing of where their message requires work, and where they stand the most opposition.

And Hillary Clinton has a lot to prove to the Democrats right now. They fought too hard, created too divisive a water for Obama to get across on his own, and now she needs to help heal that riff. Bill Clinton has hurt the party, and his wife, even more with his derisive, redneck attacks on Obama.

Unlike the rest of the media, who are saying, Oh, this is the nail in the Clintons' coffin, I completely disagree! It's like that moment in Apollo 13 when Ed Harris speaks back to the NASA bigwig who says this mission could be NASA's worst moment, and Harris says, "With all due respect, sir, I think it will be our finest hour."

And that's the situation before the Clintons right now. They both fucked up in the campaign when they a) let everything slip from their grasp, and b) got petty and unscrupulous on the primary trail. They're not stupid, they realize all the mistakes they've made, but they got caught up in the swirlie of when things go to shit and start to circle the drain, sometimes you just can't break the tide you're caught in. I think that's what happened to the Clintons.

But they'll regroup and they'll channel into the brilliant political minds they are, and while they let everything come apart in the span of three months, they have five months to reverse the damage they'd done, and I think they will. They know the nation will never forgive them if this election is lost, and they won't let that happen.

They're charming and spectacular people who understand the American mindset almost as well as masterminds like Rove. They fucked up, but if they can regroup, they can be a huge part of a massive victory party come November, and I don't think it's too late for that to happen. In fact, I'm cheering like you wouldn't believe that they find it within themselves to put all their political bullshit aside, be themselves, and be magnets that help guide Obama to victory in a time when there's practically a greenlight to the White House, if only they're smart enough to capitalize.

Bill Clinton will be outraged that he fucked up a chance to redeem his legacy in a post-blue dress/Lewinsky world. He'll get a chance to step back and get a constructive look at his asinine behaviour, and he'll start to see more of himself in Obama, who's the same age now as Clinton was when he took the office, and I think he'll become more helpful than he's been. He can become a mentor to this guy, a guy who feeds off of mentor-pupil relationships more than any politician in recent history, and he can be the father of the "kid's" campaign, if he can put his ego aside long enough to start being a guide rather than a star.

Or at least that's how I see it.

Politics, How Do I Love Thee?

Got into a political chat with a new friend of mine. That was interesting. Love talking politics. It's just so, you know, verboten and all.

She's pro-Hillary, I'm pro-Obama, but neither of us cold-cocked the other, so this is good. We both surmised that, while we'd prefer a Dem clinch it, even John McCain would be a positive force on Pennsylvania Avenue, so, you know, much lower stress, this election year.

But then she played the "Hillary has all that experience" card, and I trumped it with "Kennedy was a junior senator, too."

And I guess that's the thing we both agreed on, with Obama's relative lack of experience, he's also had less time to get ingrained in the wicked web that is Washington. This is a good thing, no matter how you slice it.

I like what McGovern's thrown into the mix today with his decision to switch allegiances to the Obama camp, and how he's calling up the recollection of the evil, bad Democratic conventions of '68 and '72 when all hell broke out to crush the hopes of Humphrey and McGovern in those respective years.

Sigh. I like having a campaign of hope and change happening at the same time I'm trying to have hope and effect change within my own life. Granted, I'm pissy and tired a lot lately and rather lacking of joy in general, it's mostly 'cos I'm so fucking tired of the work-work-work thing, but I tell you, I'm pretty pleased with what I've accomplished so far this year. If it keeps me bitchy for a while, so be it. I apologize, friends and family.

Yet, still, I wanted change, I'm making it happen. It's been a positive, life-altering year so far, on more levels than I could possibly know at this point. If I follow through in all these areas, it's going to be an incredible experience.

Through it all, I'll enjoy watching this presidential race transpire. The campaign of a lifetime, no doubt about it. Political watchers wait their whole lives for such a perfect political storm and just the right cast of characters to weather it. Like, oh my god. This is so the perfect political storm.

Nutshell? Vying for top seat in the land, we have a war hero who endured years of torture as a prisoner of war, a woman who's a political institution in her own right, who's seen the inside of the White House for eight long years, and an African-American being touted internationally as potentially the next JFK but black, not Catholic, and with the middle name of Hussein, for god's sake, all whilst the nation wages a wrongful war not yet lost but sure as fuck not won, while the economy is crashing not just at home but around the world, with a food crisis, and god knows what the fuck else is going to come pounding on the door.

It's not that anyone's enjoying the political climate, but to have THAT political climate, a true need for people in office who are capable of facing those challenges, and to have these three as the candidates of choice? And let's not forget Nader, the man keeping the art of argument alive. And a constant rallying cry of change and now and Yes We Can as a backdrop to serious discussion on serious issues? Well! Sounds like politics worth watching.

This is an absolutely incredible, beautiful, inconceivable, once-in-a-lifetime election for those of us with liberal points of view. What great openminded individuals to be able to choose amongst. Wow. It boggles the mind.

It's so hard to believe after all these years of the backward Bush administration and the horrific crap they've shovelled atop their citizens.

I never thought I'd see an election like this. I'm so surprised at how emotionally involved I am in this. I want to believe in the change that's gonna come. I wanna be just like Sam Cooke and believe. But it's been so, so long that our hope was justified. When Bush won in 2004, I was depressed for weeks, then months, then years. I'm certain there's been a degree that his presidency and the morass that North America has become under his watch has had something to do with my penchant for depression the last eight years. Fuck, he won 3 months after my mother died. THAT HELPED, YEAH, THANKS.

Fuck, man. Sometimes you just wanna throw yer hands up and go, "A little fuckin' help, big guy? Like, this too? Really? COME THE FUCK ON, man!"

Yeah, the dead mom, you know, I'll deal with it, right, but this fucking bozo the clown as president? And born-again Christian, TOO? Gotta be kidding me! Just leave me the fuck alone with my grief, and give me a leader of the free world who can at least lead, all right?

Bush... What the hell were people thinking? My god. Oh, wow. I've needed political therapy so long, man. I'm one of those people that, if I had the money, I'd be in the therapist's office twice a week for an hour, so I could spend 90 minutes bitching about society without pissing off friends and family, and about 30 minutes talking about myself. Of the 90 minutes on society, 60%, easy, on politics.

Yeah. You gotta wonder about me sometimes, eh? I was that kid in grade one who could answer a) who the Prime Minister was [Trudeau] and b) what his job was. "He's 'sposed to do what the people want him to do, fix problems with Canada and stuff." Pretty astute for 6.

All right. I gotta find a Scrabble word I can play on Facebook. Foiled with 2 Y's, an X, a J, an I, a D, and something. Hmm.